International Outlook of Cotton Production and Mill Use in 2010/11 (11/09/2010)

Updated: 2010/11/9 9:59:00

Global cotton production to rise in 2010/11
World cotton production, which sagged in the 2008 and 2009 marketing years due to the global financial crisis, is expected to rebound to 116.7 million bales in 2010/11. This will be a 15-percent increase from the previous year and the highest year-to-year rebound in 7 years. Continuing strong market prices for the fiber has resulted in production responses in some major cotton producing countries.

Australia´s 2010/11 crop is forecast at 3.3 million bales, more than double the previous year´s crop, as improved water availability and favorable market conditions are boosting planted area in the Southern Hemisphere country. Australia´s 2010/11 cotton area is forecast at 425,000 hectares, up 113 percent from a year earlier and the highest cotton area in a decade.

Brazil, another Southern Hemisphere country, is expected to produce 7.0 million bales, up 31 percent from the previous year and one of the highest outputs on record. Growers are expected to increase area 25 percent in response to higher cotton prices and rising demand from China and other countries.

China, the world´s leading cotton producer, is forecast to produce 31.5 million bales in 2010/11, down 1.6 percent from the previous year. China´s cotton production has declined for the third consecutive year. Cotton area in China in 2010/11 is forecast at 5.25 million hectares, unchanged from the previous year´s harvested area. But adverse weather in some areas is expected to reduce yields.

India´s 2010/11 production is forecast at 26.0 million bales, up 12 percent from a year ago and the highest on record. Increasing adoption of Bt cotton in India in recent years has contributed to production gains, and rising prices further boosted planting there this year. Cotton area in India in 2010/11 is forecast at 10.9 million hectares, up 6 percent from the previous year and yields are likely to rebound due to improved monsoon coverage.

Pakistan´s production in 2010/11 is forecast to decline 3.1 percent to 9.3 million bales from the previous year, while the United States and Uzbekistan are each forecast to produce 18.9 million bales and 4.8 million bales, up 55 percent and 23 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Global cotton area is forecast at 33.3 million hectares, up 10 percent from a year ago, while world 2010/11 yield is forecast to increase 5 percent to 764 kg/ha from the previous year.

World cotton trade to rebound in 2010/11
World cotton exports in 2010/11 are forecast at 38.1 million bales, up 5 percent from a year ago and similar to the global pre-crisis traded volume. Australia and Brazil are expected to export 2.75 million bales and 2.2 million bales in 2010/11, an increase of 30 percent and 10 percent, respectively, from the previous year. At the current forecasts, Australia will overtake Brazil and the African Franc Zone to become the world´s fourth largest cotton exporter. India, the world´s number two cotton exporter is forecast to export 4.8 million bales, down 27 percent from the previous year as authorities continue to impose limits on cotton exports.

Uzbekistan´s 2010/11 exports are forecast to decline 1.3 percent from the previous year to 3.8 million bales. The United States, the global leader in cotton exports, is expected to export 15.5 million bales, a 29-percent increase from the previous year and the highest volume exported in five years. As of September 30, 2010, U.S. export commitments exceeded 9.0 million bales, the largest as of that date since reporting began in the mid-1970s.

China, the leading cotton importer, is forecast to import 13.0 million bales, up 19 percent from a year earlier. Besides China, most other major cotton importers are expected to record declines or slight increases in imports in 2010.

Indonesia is expected to import 2.1 million bales in 2010/11, up 1.2 percent from a year ago.

South Korea´s 2010/11 cotton imports are forecast at 1.0 million bales, a 1-percent decline from the previous year. Pakistan and Turkey are each forecast to import 1.8 million bales and 3.2 million bales, a 29-percent rebound and a 27-percent decline, respectively, from the previous year.

Global mill use to rise amid tightening stocks in 2010/11
World cotton consumption in 2010/11 is forecast at 120.8 million bales, rebounding 2.6 percent from 2009/10, when consumption grew about 7 percent. The increase in 2010/11 consumption is supported by positive macroeconomic projections while at the same time constrained by limited supplies and high prices. Historical analysis suggests a strong positive correlation between cotton consumption in any given marketing year and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the subsequent calendar year. As of October 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic activity to grow 4.2 percent in 2011, compared with an estimated 4.8-percent growth in 2010.

Authority in Charge: China National Textile and Apparel Council (CNTAC)

Sponsor :China Textile Information Center (CTIC)

ISSN 1003-3025 CN11-1714/TS